Category Archives: Recent publications

王玉丹等,2016,遥感技术与应用

王玉丹,南卓铜,陈浩,吴小波. 基于K最近邻模型的青藏高原CMORPH日降水数据的订正研究. 遥感技术与应用. 2016, 31(3): 607-616.

摘要:

青藏高原的降水数据主要由遥感产品和多源观测数据融合产生,由于青藏高原的观测站点分布稀疏不均,遥感数据误差较大,因此常用的CMORPH(Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique)等降水数据集精度有限.通过K 最近邻(K-Nearest Neighbor,简称KNN)模型,可以建立环境(海拔、坡度、坡向、植被)、气象因子(气温、湿度、风速)和日降水量的关系,从而订正青藏高原的CMORPH 日降水数据集,提高数据精度.对CMORPH 日降水数据的误差分析表明,采用KNN 模型订正后的CMORPH 降水数据优于原始数据和采用PDF(Probability Density Function Matching Method)法订正的CMORPH 数据,且空间分布较好地符合青藏高原的降水分布特征.

下载 (~11MB, pdf) Link

一篇冻土建模的中文论文

马启民,黄滢冰,南卓铜*,吴小波. 青藏高原典型多年冻土区的一维水热过程模拟研究. 冰川冻土. 2016, 38(2): 341-350.

摘要:

了解多年冻土内部的水热过程对寒区工程规划和建设的辅助决策具有重要意义。冻土的水分迁移与温度变化密切相关,然而传统的经验模型局限性大,对水热物理过程考虑不足;陆面过程模型所需的驱动数据多且很难准确模拟深层土温,尽管数值模型在工程上应用的比较多,但很少应用到冻土的演化过程中。基于非饱和土壤渗流和热传导理论,实现了冻土水分场与温度场的水热耦合数值模拟。以唐古拉综合观测场为例,将数值模拟结果与观测数据进行对比,验证水热耦合数值模拟的有效性。结果表明:模型对土壤温度模拟效果较好,15 m以上R2在0.88以上,RMSE在1℃以内;水分模拟尚可,但仍存在一定误差,R2在0.7以上,RMSE在7.65%以内。模拟的活动层厚度约3.6 m,年平均地温所在的深度约为15 m,与实测值基本一致。该水热耦合模型可用于研究多年冻土区土壤水热变化规律.

下载 (pdf, ~10.8 MB): mqm.et al. bcdt.2016

A Plos One Paper

Zhang L, Nan Z, Xu Y, Li S. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. PloS One. 2016, 11(6): e158394. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0158394.

ABSTRACT:

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0158394

A coauthored paper published on SCIENCE

Kargel J S, Leonard G J, Shugar D H, Haritashya U K, Bevington A, Fielding E J, Fujita K, Geertsema M, Miles E S, Steiner J, Anderson E, Bajracharya S, Bawden G W, Breashears D F, Byers A, Collins B, Czyzowska-Wisniewski E, Dhital M R, Donnellan A, Evans T L, Geai M L, Glasscoe M T, Green D, Gurung D R, Heijenk R, Hilborn A, Hudnut K, Huyck C, Immerzeel W W, Jiang L, Jibson R, Kääb A, Khanal N R, Kirschbaum D, Kraaijenbrink P D A, Lamsal D, Liu S, Lv M, Mckinney D, Nahirnick N K, Nan Z, Ojha S, Olsenholler J, Painter T H, Pleasants M, Pratima K, Qi Y, Raup B H, Regmi D, Rounce D R, Sakai A, Shangguan D, Shea J M, Shrestha A B, Shukla A, Stumm D, van der Kooij M, Voss K, Wang X, Weihs B, Wolfe D, Wu L, Yao X, Yoder M R, Young N. Geomorphic, Tectonic, and Geologic Controls of Geohazards Induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha Earthquake. Science. 2015, 350. DOI:10.1126/science.aac8353.

Abstract: The Gorkha earthquake (M 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9,000 and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision makers. We mapped 4,312 co-seismic and post-seismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage, but found only 9 landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aac8353

九三学社首届全国青年论坛征文

[1] 南卓铜. 新时代九三青年的责任和担当: 九三学社首届全国青年论坛征文选. 吉林长春. 2015, 95—99.

新时代九三青年的责任和担当

九三学社甘肃省委 南卓铜

百年前梁启超先生曾说:少年智则国智,少年富则国富,少年强则国强。胡锦涛书记在十八大报告中指出:中国特色社会主义事业是面向未来的事业,需要一代又一代有志青年持续奋斗。新时代的九三学社青年社员秉承“民主与科学”的宗旨,自觉践行社会主义核心价值观,承担民族复兴、祖国建设的大任,勤学、修德、明辨、笃实,为中国梦的伟大构想做出自己的贡献。

九三青年有当代青年的一般特点,也有鲜明的自身特点。当代青年的主要特点是:(1)追求独立、张扬个性,独立、自主是当代青年的基本标签;(2)多数受过高等教育,受多元文化和思想影响,有强烈的叛逆思想;(3)有强大的创造力,快速接受新事物,时刻准备做出一翻事业;(4)有强烈的社会参与意识、责任感和使命感。九三青年多数来自科技和教育界别,受教育程度高,在专业领域创新能力强。九三青年加入九三学社,都是抱着知识报国的想法,一些人已经在本专业领域做出了可喜的成绩,希冀通过九三学社这个平台得以参政议政,推进社会进步。相比于普通青年,九三青年拥有更精湛的专业技能、更强烈的社会参与意识和更广阔的政治舞台。九三青年往往熟练掌握外语和互联网技术,很多人甚至有国外留学经历,比普通青年更容易接触欧美国家价值观,在看到社会上发生的一些不公现象时,更容易陷入困惑和迷茫之中,产生怀才不遇等负面情绪。因此,新时代的九三青年在成长过程中必须坚守社会主义核心价值观,扬长避短,担当起时代赋予的重任。

当代青年是社会主义建设大业的主力军,九三青年更应成为社会主义建设的领军人才,不仅要做好本职工作,还要始终热情主动承担社会责任、积极参政议政。

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